MORENA, GOOD MORNING, AND WELCOME TO Q+A, THE HOME OF SUNDAY MORNING POLITICS. I'M CORIN DANN. GREAT TO HAVE YOU ALONG AND BEING PART OF THE POLITICAL CONVERSATION. LABOUR SPENT NINE YEARS CRITICISING NATIONAL FOR ITS LACK OF ACTION ON HOUSING AFFORDABILITY. CAN THEY NOW DELIVER? WHEN WILL THE BUILDING BEGIN? HOUSING MINISTER PHIL TWYFORD IS HERE TODAY. HE'S GOING TO EXPLAIN HOW HIS KIWIBUILD WILL WORK. PLUS, WE'VE GOT THE EXCLUSIVE ON A BIG HOUSING ANNOUNCEMENT. THEN ` THE TRADE WAR IS ON. CHINA AND THE US NOW IN A TIT-FOR-TAT BATTLE. AND IS NEW ZEALAND GETTING CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE? LOOKS LIKE IT. I'LL BE TALKING TO TRADE EXPERT JOHN BALLINGALL, FROM THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. GREENPEACE CALLED ON THE GOVERNMENT TO END FUTURE OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION THIS WEEK. A 45,000-SIGNATURE PETITION WAS PRESENTED TO THE PRIME MINISTER. GREENPEACE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR RUSSEL NORMAN IS HERE TO ARGUE THAT NEW ZEALAND MUST MOVE ON FROM FOSSIL FUELS. AND WE'LL HAVE ANALYSIS FROM OUR PANEL ` DR GRANT DUNCAN, JORDAN KING, MARAMA FOX AND ASHLEY CHURCH. CAPTIONS BY ANTONY VLUG AND INGRID LAUDER. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2018 HERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS FOR THE WEEK. QUESTION ` IS THE DECISION JACINDA ARDERN HAS TO MAKE ON OIL EXPLORATION SHAPING AS A DEFINING MOMENT IN HER LEADERSHIP? ANSWER ` IT HAS TO BE NOW, DOESN'T IT? REMEMBER SHE'S THE ONE WHO SAID CLIMATE CHANGE WAS HER GENERATION'S NUCLEAR-FREE MOMENT. NO PRESSURE. IS IT JUST ME OR WAS SHANE JONES'S ATTACK ON AIR NZ, ER... DONALD TRUMPISH? ANSWER ` YES. BECAUSE WHILE IT MIGHT BE A GENUINE COMPLAINT, IT ALSO SPEAKS DIRECTLY TO HIS BASE. QUESTION ` IS THE SCANDAL ENGULFING FACEBOOK GOING TO TURN KIWIS OFF THE SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORM? ANSWER ` PROBABLY NOT. BUT WITH FACEBOOK FOUND WANTING OVER THE MISUSE OF 50 MILLION USERS DATA, MAYBE. THE REGULATORS WILL FINALLY CATCH UP WITH THEM. RIGHT, LET'S TALK KIWIBUILD WITH SOME NEW NEWS THIS MORNING. HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT MINISTER PHIL TWYFORD. You have an announcement coming in an hour or so? What have you got? It is very exciting. We have purchased nearly 30 ha of prime urban land. At the Unitech site and Mt Albert. It will be a cider but it exciting new project that will see between three and 4000 new homes built there and what will be a showcase for urban development. How many KiwiBuild homes? They will be worked out once we are partners in place. But hopefully 30 and 40% KiwiBuild affordable homes. So a thousand? We also want to see state housing now. If we don't get good state housing, who will? There was an initial look by the last government and there were protest groups unhappy because of transporting congestion. Are you expecting push back there? We still have to do the master planning. We are at an early stage. But ensuring good transport links will be a critical part of the exercise. The amazing thing about this site is that it will have superb transport links. It has rail at one end and then light rail at the other. You have public transport but people will still drive. And the roads around their already congested. That is a lot of people and cars in a very congested area. With such fantastic rail links and bus service, it has cycle lanes on all sides of the development site. This could be the first big development we have ever seen where you don't have to own a car to live. Who will build it? Have you got the property developers? It is early days but we're gonna be working closely with Auckland iwi under the treaty settlement they have the right to bid for and have a role. Are they investor or property development? They could be both and we will be sorting out the process we're going to take and what involvement they will have. Will there be prefab houses? Wider with our wider plans prefab housing has to be one of the biggest opportunities we have to build more houses and better quality a better price. And I hope houses that were gonna be building on the site are good number of them will be modern prefab. Let's focus on the KiwiBuild homes there are. These are for first-time buyers and people struggling to get in the market. What will the pricing be for a KiwiBuild house in the Mt Albert development? In medium density as all KiwiBuild have an Auckland. 5 to 600,000 is the range we're talking about. Somebody is going to get a $600,000 to a three bedroom house in Mt Albert? Years. That is really cheap. The minute they get the key they'll be worth hundred thousand dollars more. We will be flooding the market over time these houses and change the market dynamic with more supply but also the demand side with tax changes that we are making. You are not going to see the year after year capital gains that have been a feature of the last few years. Can you get a house of any kind for that price? Where is the fairness in us. How do you decide who gets the house? They are getting a massive capital gains regardless. In the early years until the market dynamics change, you are going to see the potential for windfall gains. That is why we are likely to have a requirement that you stay in the house for certain number of years. We haven't put a time on it. You did put it on an election promise. You said five years. At the end of that time you might have a payback a share of the capital gains, and that is to avoid the windfall. That wasn't part of your policy. We have always said they had to stand house for a certain number of years. I thought the policy said once that for five years, you've got the capital gain. That is what I'm saying. If you left early had to pay back. be longer than five years was among but you did but the five years on it and it might be changed? We are working through the details on that. The other thing is are you looking for shared equity? Are you looking at potentially the government owning some of the house to help those who can't raise deposit or can't service the mortgage? We are looking at shared equity. For a lot of people a mortgage of 500,000 is out of reach. We want a big group of young Kiwis to have access to KiwiBuild. Shared equity where the government or another investor retains a share of the equity, and that means a smaller mortgage for the homebuyer, but then you have an opportunity to buy out the equity stake, they could open up affordable ownership. How widespread are you looking to do that? We are looking to do that. It will take capital. You only have $2 billion. We never intended to that 2 billion for the capital fund to fund shared equity. But what is becoming clear is that there is opportunities to bring private M. Are you working with banks? We are looking to create a fund that can create a shared equity program. How does that work with private banks? Today get a deal where they can talk private loans. We are exploring a shared equity program. So you have looked at it and there has been a lot of criticism from the likes of MBIE and reserve bank. They all suggest you have been heroic with forecasts of how many you can build and affordability. You seem to be suggesting that you have gone away and locked and have suggestions. We inherited a mess and have had to start from scratch to build a platform for a massive government backed platform. We are going to throw everything at this problem and no stone will be left unturned. The crisis was so bad in New Zealand, requires ambition and bold creative approaches. But I have no doubt in my mind that if we apply ourselves do this seriously, we will build a supply chain beautifully built modern affordable houses for Yankee families. Starting from July 1. That will ramp up. Correction, Kiwi families. The advice is that it will be a year before we can build on the site. The owners of the current site have to relocate some of the operation. You owned a massive pressure. Judith Collins is on your back. When are you gonna first start? It will start this year and then it will soon become a flood. We are looking to underwrite plans from private sector. We are looking at vacant government land to develop on a deferred payment basis. Let's go back to a we started on equity. Let's say there is 2000 KiwiBuild homes, how do you decide who gets them? Is there a ballot? Because they win the lottery if they get that place. A house under the market value and great transport. In the early years be far more demand then we can supply in the early months and years. We have always said we will ballot the houses. As long as their citizens or permanent residences. They will put their name and a balance for a development. Will you screen and test them to make sure they are who they are? There is no need for a big bureaucracy to support this. But after a while there will be no need for a ballot because so many houses will be coming on there won't be the mismatch of supply and demand. How soon before you can get rid of the ballot scheme? We'll have to wait and see. People are grateful for the ambition and the drive, but have you been too ambitious and heroic? To put it crudely, the informatics say you are pulling numbers out of your arse. That was the name of the report. That is a lot better than sitting on it for nine years. The fundamental issue that we have, and the one they reserve bank Treasury have touched on is that you gonna crowd out the private sector, and by the time you have your KiwiBuild houses, you won't have more houses then you would anyway. We have a situation of market value right now. The former government thought the market would fix itself. Our philosophy is when the market fails, it is time for government to get in and fix it. That is the philosophy of KiwiBuild. Some of the early advice from early weeks the government and take into account that we are going to remove obstacles does stop industry from scaling up. Prefab and off-site manufacturing is one way we get around the workforce shortage we have. If we can contract thousands of homes over multiple years to affirm a factory that can churn out high-quality homes have a better cost, we can get around the workforce issues. Can you guarantee that they are quality? You have huge pressure to deliver this. Can you confirm that these won't be slums and these will be energy-efficient? One of the benefits of our massive project like this is that you can set standards. And we will ensure that they are top-quality and warm and dry. When you build homes in a factory with the latest high quality technology, the quality is superior. You are 9000 builders short to do that. Using automation to do this. We are putting a program in place to ramp up trade training right across the entire construction industry. We are also aggressively recruiting from overseas, because we have inherited a basket case. That will take bold action to kickstart the industry. On the issue of affordability and loans, will you make any changes to the Kiwi saver? In a perfect world you would want to do that. But we have an imbalance between supply and demand. If we throw more subsidies and homebuyers, that will have a consequence of driving prices up higher. And we do not want that. MBIE talked about someone needing 114,000 in Auckland to service a mortgage for $600,000 home. That is going to rule out a lot of people that you are targeting if they need that level of income. I am not sure about those numbers. More than first-time buyers in Auckland about I.E. More than 700,000 Auckland. How much are they only know if they can afford that? Those people don't, but there are those next Saddam who are looking for the helping hand. Will there be a salary limit? We don't want the bureaucracy. We need homes for first-time buyers. Former governments did this for decades and we can do it again. Someone who has parents who give their money for a deposit a younger professional couple could get and the ballot and get a house out the Mt Albert that will be worth more than a year later. We don't think means testing is the way to go. Everyone wants homeownership. We will provide homes but we are reforming the rental market for the half of Kiwis that rent. We have stopped the sell-off of state housing. Our housing policy is a reform policy and there is something in a everyone. Good luck with your announcement later today. SEND US YOUR THOUGHTS. WE'RE ON TWITTER AT NZQ-AND-A. YOU CAN EMAIL US AT Q+A AT TVNZ.CO.NZ WE'LL STAY WITH HOUSING AFTER THE BREAK. PHIL TWYFORD SAYS KIWIBUILD WILL GET MORE PEOPLE INTO THEIR FIRST HOME. OUR PANEL'S TAKE IS NEXT. LET'S BRING IN OUR PANEL DR GRANT DUNCAN, MASSEY UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENTIST. JORDAN KING, SPOKESPERSON FOR RENTERS UNITED. MARAMA FOX, FORMER MAORI PARTY MP. AND ASHLEY CHURCH, CEO OF THE PROPERTY INSTITUTE. Start with Jordan from the renters. As your generation feeling encouraged by what they heard today? I think the philosophy is encouraging. There has been a market failure. But there are concerns particularly on affordability. $600,000 house in Auckland for a first-time buyers are significant. It is good to hear talk about shared equity, but we need policy detail and that will have to be central if we want first-time buyers moving into the stock. The broad question of affordability is still there for many people. It was encouraging to him talk about broader reforms to residential tenancies that is extremely important to us. So I am pleased that he's talking about it is a wider package. A few moving parts such as the year limits. He is being flexible. I think it would be easy to start dissecting the detail but the bigger picture, I am heartened when he talks. We need to build more houses to bring prices down and that has to be the major focus. There are some aspects that we may not agree with. And some that may be inequitable, but we need to look at the bigger scope and the framework overall. In 10 years we need 100,000 additional homes and that will bring down prices. Christchurch is an example of that. Talking of equitable, do you think Maori are going to be looked after? I congratulate the Minister. Because he is talking the right type of talk. But I know if you're going to build a thousand houses in Mt Albert, they will be two bedroom and Maori and Pacific who live in South Auckland trying to get into property, iwi are working with them. We will have to do more around iwi land, because you can't even get a mortgage on Maori owned land unless you change the regulations all the government back the mortgages. I think at the moment what you can build as many houses as you like, but if they're not in the affordable range with enough bedrooms for families, there will be an equitable issue. How do you think politically he is going? It is such a big job. This is a high-pressure job and it is great to hear and talking so positively and ambitiously. We need that because there is a crisis. But come the next election how many of those houses have been built. And I think some of those questions you are asking about people getting windfall gains out of this and maybe that gets into the news and becomes a bit of a political issue. Why are they so stubborn about means testing? I agree that we should relax about means testing. Talking about the big picture the supply will have an overall effect on the housing market. But there will be stories that come out, as they do, before the next election. There is a lot of detail that has not been worked out. He is often saying he is and worked out the detail. I wonder if that matters. He is bringing the enthusiasm but they will only last a while. Come the next election there will need to be results. How many houses have you built, who is in them, are they equitable and what kind of quality. If any of them are leaking,, they'll be interesting. There needs to be more massaging around the narrative of numbers. I think most of us support the number of houses over 10 years. The media is already talking about 10,000 per year, but all take some time to build up. Where the global figure of 100,000, but we need numbers in the formative years. Let's say if it's going to be fewer in the early years. On the assumption is that there might be more by year 10. That is a weakness in the narrative because it is creating an expectation that there will be 30,000 by 2020 how do you think the target audience will feel about the idea of a ballot and that some that when that really Win. I think it will be uncomfortable for those going through a ballot process. And it is not going to ramp up for a number of years and it will be frustrating for those desperately tried again to homes. I think the other point is that is ambitious for 100,000, but it could be more ambitious and maybe 100,000 isn't enough. Already we have a deficit of 40,000 and why are we talking 200,000. In the context it sounds like a lot, but Sweden built a million over 10 years. The government has to realise that is going to be expensive but this is a once in a generation chance to really ramp up supply and I think $100,000 is and is ambitious enough. I think this is the opportunity we have now but has to be done in the private sector. We costed out 250,000 houses on to green space land with the infrastructure needed, Will cost than $112 billion. And we have housing that is going to be needed in Hamilton and the east coast, and it's not just about Auckland and we have been building about 10,000 houses a year at least to be able to get everybody and to homes whether they are renting or owning or estate home. And we are not going to build a do it with the government regulations in place now. The infrastructure needs to be put in there and they don't have the money. He alluded to the idea that banks could get involved. I think there is a lot to be gained because there's a lot of mortgages. It depends on what he means. I don't know how it is likely for them to be investors in their own right. Whether there's investors going through the bank, the big problem is that their economic narrative is very much around scaring investors away. We are talking about capital gains taxes for investors. This is the opposite of what you need to be saying to a market that you want investors and as private sectors. I say one of the issues that we need is the state to become more central in housing. The trend over the last 30 years has been moving away. We need a private sector involved but we actually need the state to deal with this issue of market value. A lot of investors have had a good for a long time. The political challenges are big there are. The private sector is a big part of our economy. There is only so much the government can force them to do. There are a lot of moving parts and parties that need to make choices. I guess this is an opportunity that if it works for the government as an opportunity for the government to work closely with investors everyone has to lend a hand. The danger is by the next election is that it is not working and is controversy. And different parties and the feeling they are not being heard or getting a fair go. Is there a bigger risk such as Shane Jones having a go at Air New Zealand. Is there a chilling effect? I think already has been a chilling effect on some announcements. Invests as good see this as an opportunity. And they have to talk and work together with government, to put some numbers around that a positive perspective. There are 600,000 rental units in New Zealand. And many of those are provided by the private sector. The state needs to ramp up its industry but most are provided by the private sector, so scaring that sector could derail it on the other side. It needs to be a collaboration. What does national need to do here? Judith Collins has been on Phil Twyford's case. There is an element of goodwill. I think national need to be working with the government and that sounds terrible. Bipartisanship? Forbid. That's a new concept. We can't do this alone and can't do it if there's gonna be fighting and blaming. It has been a systematic failure for 30 years that has brought us to this point. Not just one government. National has done a lot to get us to the position to get here. And labour has to get us across the line. National had already identified that side already. BEFORE WE GO TO THE BREAK, THIS WEEK'S Q+A BUSINESS PODCAST IS ON 1 NEWS NOW, AND ON SOUNDCLOUD AND ITUNES TOO. FONTERRA'S POOR INTERIM RESULTS THIS WEEK WERE OVERSHADOWED BY THE RESIGNATION OF CEO THEO SPIERINGS. I SAT DOWN WITH HIM FOR AN EXTENDED INTERVIEW. HERE'S SOME OF WHAT HE HAD TO SAY: NEW ZEALAND IS A FANTASTIC COUNTRY, AND THE PREMIUM-NESS OF NEW ZEALAND AND NEW ZEALAND DAIRY INDUSTRY AND MILK IS MASSIVE. WHAT YOU` WHAT I SEE IS THAT` WE DIE A LITTLE BIT AT HOME ON FRAGMENTATION. IT'S A VERY FRAGMENTED APPROACH. PEOPLE STRUGGLE TO HAVE` TO REALLY APPRECIATE THE MASSIVE SKILL OPERATION LIKE WE ARE. OF COURSE, YOU HAVE THE TALL POPPY THING AROUND, AND WE CAN BE` WE CAN BE AS A COMPANY AS WELL, VERY INTERNALLY FOCUSED, BUT WE HAVE TO ALWAYS REMIND OURSELVES WE SELL 95% OF ALL LITRES WE COLLECT OFFSHORE. WE HAVE A VERY SMALL DOMESTIC MARKET. YEAH, AND IT'S NOT BEING CRITICAL, BUT WE ARE THE NUMBER-ONE DAIRY PROCESSOR IN THE WORLD. WE HAVE TO LOOK OUTWARD. WE HAVE TO KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING OUT THERE, AND IF NEW ZEALAND WOULD APPRECIATE` WOULD HEAR MORE ABOUT HOW PEOPLE RATE US OFFSHORE AS A TRUE CHAMPION IN FOOD AND DAIRY, NEW ZEALAND WOULD BE EXTREMELY PROUD. AND THEY WOULD UNDERSTAND YOUR SALARY? YEAH, I THINK SO, BUT I MEAN, THE BOARD DETERMINES WHAT MY PACKAGE IS. I'M NOT DETERMINING THAT MYSELF. BECAUSE WHEN YOU READ SOME COMMENTS, YOU THINK YOU WRITE YOUR OWN CHEQUE, BUT YOU DON'T. THEO SPIERINGS THERE. AND YOU CAN LISTEN TO THAT INTERVIEW ON YOUR PODCAST APP OR WATCH ON OUR WEBSITE. AND ALONG WITH THE REST OF OUR EXPORTERS, FONTERRA WILL BE WATCHING HOW THE TRADE DISPUTE BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA DEVELOPS. CHINA HAS HIT BACK WITH NEW TARIFFS ON AMERICAN GOODS. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? JOHN BALLINGALL, GLOBAL TRADE SPECIALIST, WILL EXPLAIN, AFTER THE BREAK. PICTURES ARE COMING IN THIS MORNING OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE GATHERING IN CITIES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES CALLING FOR TOUGHER GUN LAWS. THE PROTEST, CALLED 'MARCH FOR OUR LIVES', IS BEING LEAD BY SURVIVORS AT THE SCHOOL IN PARKLAND, FLORIDA, WHERE 17 PEOPLE WERE KILLED BY A GUNMAN LAST MONTH. PROTEST RALLIES ARE ALSO TAKING PLACE IN OTHER CENTRES AROUND THE WORLD. I saw one yesterday in Wellington. TO THE LOOMING TRADE WAR NOW BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA. UNLIKE NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA AND THE EU GET A TEMPORARY EXEMPTION FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP'S CONTROVERSIAL NEW STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFS. New Zealand has not got that exemption. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? FOR MORE ON THIS STORY, I'M JOINED BY JOHN BALLINGALL, SENIOR ECONOMIST AND TRADE EXPERT AT ECONOMIC THINK TANK THE NZIER. Is it alarming That New Zealand, despite Jacinda Ardern writing to Donald Trump asking to be accepted from these tariffs, has been left off? It is slightly concerning. We export around $65 million worth of steel and aluminium to the US. We are not a threat to US security. We have balanced bilateral trade which President Trump seems to think matters. New Zealand should not be a target of these tariffs. It is disappointing that so far we have not been accepted. We are supposed to be a good friend not quite an ally. Have we been missed over somehow? I think this is just a case of global superpowers are flexing their muscles at the moment. New Zealand is at risk of being caught up as collateral damage. This is not about New Zealand. This is about Trump Being consistent with what he campaigned on. He feels the US economy is being ripped off by other countries. He feels the US is losing in global trade and he is introducing his tariffs To right those wrongs. Let's put aside the exemption issue. What is the end effect New Zealand here? It is weakening global growth and less demand for our exports And more barriers for exports and that will mean we will be poorer doesn't it? That is right. There are a few ways these tariffs might impact on New Zealand. Despite what Trump thinks tariffs do not make the economy go faster. The global economy will slow. Secondly it creates enormous uncertainty for businesses. When businesses are in certain they do not hire and they do not invest. Thirdly and most importantly, New Zealand is always trying to reduced tariffs So we can trade more easily. A trade war goes on exactly the opposite direction and for a small open economy that is very worrying. What do we do? We have fairly limited powers. We are small. We can continue to work on exemptions. I have no doubt our diplomats are working very hard offshore to do that. We can continue to control the controllable. These include pushing for more trade agreements around the world With the UK, Asia, the EU. They will insulated us from some of the worst of this trade war. And we need to have faith in the World Trade Organisation And work with like-minded countries To make sure the trade rules are applied consistently by the World Trade Organisation. It is so important to us That the rules of the trade game are clear. But he has ripped them up. If you look at the fine print for the exemptions, especially Australia, It seems they have given them an exemption on the steel but they have said you will get a quote on that. There might be some strings attached. Maybe we dodged a bullet. We know that The current administration is not a huge fan of the world trade organisation. We are in a really unusual situation right now. The rules of global trade are being disregarded And that is very concerning to New Zealand. We need to work hard with other countries To make sure the World Trade Organisation takes a firm stand on some of these spuriousReasons for imposing trade barriers. It is really concerning. We have taken all our tariffs away. That is the point here. We are an open, liberal, trading nation. We went so far down this road , For the world to flip like this It must be causing a lot of concern at the Ministry of foreign affairs and trade. New Zealand has very low levels of tariffs. That has been a good thing for our economy. It is one of the main reasons why our economy is so Responsive and flexible to the global trading environment. Our best hope is to work with other countries why don't we put a tariff backup on steel and protect our steel industry? There is an argument for protectionism. There is an argument for it but it is not a very good one. If we look at America for example, there are 140,000 workers on steel and aluminium production. There are 6 � million workers In industries that consume steel like automotive or aeronautical. So it has been modelled for everyone job that is saved through these tariffs on steel and alimony, another five will be lost somewhere else in the economy. That is not the game we want to be playing. It goes against New Zealand's reputation of being one of the good guys in global trade. We are open economy and we benefit from that. We will gain nothing by imposing tariffs ourselves. Thank you. I hope it is not a case of good guys coming last when it comes to trade wars. RIGHT, UP NEXT ` GREENPEACE IS CALLING FOR A BAN ON ALL NEW OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION. IT'S ALARMED THE INDUSTRY, WHICH SAYS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WILL BE LOST FROM THE ECONOMY. GREENPEACE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR RUSSEL NORMAN FRONTS UP NEXT. WELCOME BACK, AND GOOD MORNING TO GREENPEACE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR RUSSEL NORMAN. Great to have you here. What an interesting week it has been with Jacinda Ardern going on to the steps of Parliament and accepting your petition to end oil and gas exploration. Has that got your hopes up? It does. That she accepted the petition, It means she is thinking about it. She said that climate change isGenerations nuclear free issue. I don't know if that Kiwi we will end up in terms of this. I think it clearly is a direction. You cannot burn the existing fossil fuel reserves if you want to avoid catastrophic climate change. She has indicated she is serious about climate change. But her post cabinet conference, she said it is business as usual. She recoiled a little bit from it. I think she was trying to bring the two different parts together. She was saying that this is a serious issue because of climate change And there is as other process and we will bring these two things together. From reading up on this and looking into it, it looks like theIndustry is in a gradual retreat anyway. Certainly oil perhaps not gas. Why do we need to put a hard and fast target on this when we are making a change anyway? We are not making the change faster. When you look at what is happening with climate change globally, We have to act to protect our kids and grandchildren. You scare off investment. There are 11,000 jobs. That is debatable. There are thousands of jobs. This will have a dramatic effect on people's lives. For people who are directly affected there needs to be Some support. But this is an end to oil and gas exploration. But the existing industry and reserves are still there. It is indicating a phase down and a transition. If you are serious about reducing oil and gas, you do not look for more. We need to develop a very clear strategy to phase it out. We know that those in the oil industry pay well. $100,000 seems to be The average. The government can't display the hundred thousand dollars when they lose their job. We have a very large regional development fund. They need to be part of it. Particular for Taranaki Which has the largest industry in the country. We can't lose sight of the bigger picture about climate change. What do we use oil for? It is transport energy, the electric occasion of transport is where the whole world is heading. We need to be part of that. The plastics, we can look at bio plastics and replacement of them. But we're not there yet. What is a date when you think that is doable? The first step is to stop looking for more. That is where we are at the moment. When would you say is the cut-off? There are block offers that have been done years ago. People have the right to a small for another 20 years. In my view I would say today. That would cost $15 billion. That was the advice given to the Green Party during coalition talks. That advice was From MBIE And they pulled a number out of their arse. This is a global emergency. We need to phase it out. You might dispute the $15 billion figure, but there would be a massive impact. There is huge amounts of gas being used by consumers. It would have a massive disruptive effect on people's lives. It is about whether we are looking for new oil and gas. The existing industry and reserve still exist and are still available. But gas will run out in 10 years. There is some dispute about that. At some point it will run out. So what is the sense of importing gas from Australia to meet the demand that Will still be there. It is to make electricity. When you look at the electricity, When you look at the elite furcation of industrial processes and transport, the thing that is missing is solar in New Zealand in terms of supply and batteries are A huge part. Let's unpack solar. You have to bring the solar here from China. That uses a bunch of carbon. It has carbon in it. How are going to offset that? If we are no longer burning gas for electricity generation, we can offset it very easily. Solar panels produce electricity for literally decades. That is not a serious concern. We need to look at the electricity system looks like when we electrify transport and industrial processes and we get rid of coal and gas. But we will need a more localised electricity for people using solar. So there will be a big cost. And there are people who can afford solar panels and those who can't. There are big equity issues there. There are issues but they are not overwhelming. Electric vehicles are part of the solution as well. They are mobile storage devices. Batteries will enter much more commonly in people's homes. At the moment of peak demand, it can pull electricity from the car, one of the new electric vehicles have been designed that way. Are you being too heroic here? You can see the technology making the changes. People understand that. They understand oil is declining. But are you being too heroic about how quickly the change can happen? The first step surely has to be not to increase. Exploration is about finding more oil and gas. We should stop doing that because we know we can't do it. Then how do we manage the transition? We need to get our heads around stop looking for more. Otherwise we are not serious about it. We need to manage the transition. We have a good idea about how much gas and oil we have left. We know about electrified transport. Let's have a plan. What is the cut-off date? What would be the time New Zealand no longer looks oil and gas was to mark I think today should be the day. In terms of new permits, we should stop issuing new permits the oil and gas exploration today if we're serious about climate change. Where do you think the government can get to. They have a blue-Green issue with NZ First. They will be less keen on this. How far and vicious do you want them to be question mark I want them to be extremely ambitious. So the last block off was last year? Yes. If we have the pathway available to us we should grasp it. THE PANEL'S BACK AFTER THE BREAK, AND WE LOOK BACK TO 1944, WHEN A HOUSING SHORTAGE TURNED A WELL-KNOWN AUCKLAND PARK INTO A TRANSIT CAMP FOR FAMILIES. THAT'S NEXT. YOUR FEEDBACK NOW ON PHIL TWYFORD'S KIWIBUILD ANNOUNCEMENT. GRANT ROWAN TWEETED THAT MARAMA AT LEAST GETS IT. IT IS NOT ALL ABOUT AUCKLAND. HOUSING NEEDS ARE IN THE PROVINCES TOO! MURRAY GREY ALSO TWEETED ` 27 HOMES A DAY. SOMEONE IS GETTING A KEY TO THE FRONT DOOR. YOU'RE DREAMING. WILLIAM SARGENT SAYS SO LABOUR WANT TO AUTOMATE THE INDUSTRY AND BULK UP TRAINING. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SUPPLY MEETS DEMAND? HUGE UNEMPLOYMENT. Let's get on to oil and gas. I want to ask you Grant, has Jacinda Ardern made a rod for her back by going out on a public way like that and signalling oil and gas expiration my end. She could argue that all she was doing was accepting a petition To Parliament. But she was also stealing a James Shaw's spotlight. She got ahead of the issue. But it is also putting a stake in the ground that Labour is very ambitious about this. But they also have NZ First to think about. They are the party of the regions aren't they? They do have some issues to deal with. Dr Norman is very keen and ambitious plans the right now. You want to get on with it. But this is a Labour led government And they do tend to be progressive But they don't want to frighten the horses. They will want to change things gradually. Solar energy will be the big thing. Some have argued that the oil stuff has created uncertainty. What do you think of Shane Jones outburst at Air New Zealand? Has it sentA signal to corporate New Zealand? I liked his challenge to Air New Zealand. Then he went and had the dinner with Barack Obama which was sponsored by Air New Zealand. I regularly catch Chatham airlines, So you are starting to see smaller airlines taking up the space. But if I live in Masterton and I need to catch a flight somewhere I have to drive two hours to Wellington. Ashley, what do you think of the signals is ascending to business question mark are they worried? Or is it just a Labour government? The bigger issue is a loss of control of the narrative by the government. You had the Labour youth camp to bark all. Debacle. There was a concerns about the increase in rental prices. Shane Jones went from being a champion to the regions to Homer Simpson pretty quickly. You had the Greens giving away their Parliamentary questions to National. For goodness sake. What sort of effect will this have? It is huge. It's what you would expect at the end of the third term of the government. But this is for a five minutes into the government. Maybe this is the making change. But it should have a positive message. At this stage they look to be unprepared and they have lost the narrative and they are in disarray. We do not know what were doing, and the business community. About the Prime Minister statement, I think the rental Property situation is in a state of disarray. So land was thinking morally about what they are doing is apt and timely. We want them to look at the residential tenancies act. You want to see them go further than just removing letting fees? Absolutely. We will have one of the least regulated private rental markets in the OECD and people are having to move constantly and see their rents increase substantially. Do you think the government has lost direction? Absolutely not. It is trying to plan for the renters. This is an MMP government. We have never seen this before. The Maori party used to sit alongside the National party, but NZ First and the Green Party have very strong beliefs, And are we just working out how to do it? The smaller parties are what brings a uniqueness to our government. They challenge the status quo that has gone on between blue and red. Shane Jones champing the regions is a good thing. Jacinda Ardern could runs into New Zealand first And just use as an excuse for not cancelling oil and gas exploration. it does look like a loss of narrative in a sense, bbut it is about MMP and us growing up with this. Normally is these things would have happened in the caucus room and we would not have heard about it. We are seeing the reality of politics being played out more publicly. So New Zealand needs to grow up and embraces debate and these differences. This is a government of some diversity of opinion. But that diversity of opinion represents a large chunk of New Zealand. We have to wrap it up there. DEPENDING ON WHO YOU TALK TO, NEW ZEALAND IS SHORT OF AROUND 70,000 HOMES, MOST OF THEM IN AUCKLAND. BUT IT'S CERTAINLY NOT THE FIRST TIME IN OUR HISTORY WE'VE FACED THIS PROBLEM. OUR LOOK BACK THIS WEEK IS FROM 1944, WHEN THE AUCKLAND CITY COUNCIL - AS IT WAS ` HAD TO SET UP TEMPORARY ACCOMMODATION AT WESTERN SPRINGS PARK FOR FAMILIES ON THE WAITING LIST FOR A STATE HOUSE: MOST CITIES TODAY HAVE A SERIOUS HOUSING PROBLEM. WE HAVE TO HOUSE NOT ONLY RETURNED SERVICEMEN AND WAR WORKERS, BUT THOUSANDS WHOSE PRESENT ACCOMMODATION IS UNSUITABLE OR INADEQUATE. CHILDREN NEED SUN AND AIR AND SPACE. THEY GET IT HERE IN WESTERN SPRINGS TRANSIT CAMP. ESTABLISHED BY THE AUCKLAND CITY COUNCIL BY CONVERTING AN AMERICAN ARMY CAMP TO CIVILIAN NEEDS. THIS CAMP ACCOMMODATES FAMILIES IN DESPERATE NEED OF HOMES WHO ARE AWAITING STATE HOUSES. A MOTHER WHO HAS JUST SHIFTED INTO THE CAMP TELL US HER OWN EXPERIENCES. NOW WE'RE IN THE UNIT, A TWO-BEDROOM, COMPARED WITH THE ONE ROOM WE'VE BEEN USED TO. AND THERE'S ALSO PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE CHILDREN TO PLAY ROUND HERE. THIS YOUNG COUPLE ALSO LOOK PLEASED TO BE SHIFTING IN. THEIR TEMPORARY HOME HERE IS SELF-CONTAINED, EXCEPT OF COURSE THAT THERE ARE SUCH FACILITIES AS COMMUNITY WASH HOUSES. AND ALTHOUGH COMMUNITY CLOTHESLINES MAY HAVE DISADVANTAGES, THEY ARE A LOT BETTER THAN HANGING THE WASHING ON THE VERANDA. (CHEERFUL MUSIC) THE MEN GET TOGETHER AND CLEAR THE CHILDREN'S PLAYING AREA AND FIX A SANDPIT FOR THE SMALLER ONES. MUM'S TROUBLE MUST BE LESS HERE, WHERE THERE'S SOMEWHERE FOR THE KIDDIES TO PLAY, AND WHERE SHE CAN EITHER COOK IN HER UNIT OR HAVE MEALS IN THE COMMUNITY DINING ROOM. ON WASHING DAY, THIS MUST BE QUITE A HELP. THE TRANSIT CAMP IS NOT MEANT TO BE A PERMANENT HOME. IT'S AN EXPERIMENT AND AN ATTEMPT TO COPE WITH ONE OF THE WORST PROBLEMS WE HAVE TODAY. AND REMEMBER THERE'S MUCH MORE FROM THE Q+A TEAM ONLINE. MY BUSINESS PODCAST, AS I MENTIONED BEFORE, PLUS AN INTERVIEW WITH TOP US REPUBLICAN PARTY STRATEGIST FRANK LUNTZ. HE'S A BIG FAN OF NEW ZEALAND POLITICS, BUT LESS ENAMOURED WITH THE DIVISIONS IN AMERICA. WHEN WE MET UP LAST WEEK, I ASKED HIM ABOUT THE MOOD IN THE US AND WHETHER DONALD TRUMP WILL BE ELECTED AGAIN. THREE POINTS. NUMBER ONE IS THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS ONE OF THE LOWEST POPULARITY LEVELS OF ANY PRESIDENT AT THIS POINT IN HIS ADMINISTRATION. NUMBER TWO IS THAT HIS SUPPORTERS ARE FANATICAL. THEY ARE COMMITTED TO HIM AND THEY WILL STAY WITH HIM, AND THEY'RE WILLING TO GIVE HIM A CHANCE. AND NUMBER THREE, EVEN BEFORE HE GETS THE CHANCE TO RUN FOR RE-ELECTION, WE HAVE THESE MID-YEAR, MID-TERM ELECTIONS COMING UP IN NOVEMBER, AND THAT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT HE STILL HAS THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITY NECESSARY TO GET HIS LEGISLATION THROUGH CONGRESS. THAT INTERVIEW IS UP ON OUR Q+A WEBSITE. IT'S WELL WORTH A WATCH. MARAE IS NEXT. REMEMBER THERE IS A Q+A REPEAT, ALTHOUGH TONIGHT IT'S AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT YOU CAN ALSO WATCH OUR INTERVIEWS ONLINE AND ON YOUTUBE. THANKS FOR WATCHING, AND THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS. THOSE WERE THE QUESTIONS AND THOSE WERE THE ANSWERS. THAT'S Q+A. SEE YOU NEXT SUNDAY MORNING AT 9. CAPTIONS BY ANTONY VLUG AND INGRID LAUDER. CAPTIONS WERE MADE WITH THE SUPPORT OF NZ ON AIR. COPYRIGHT ABLE 2018